Data-driven investment analysis of the German rental market

Unlocking the best performing single-family rental housing in Germany

Opportunity

Germany has strong demand for housing in the “Top 7” cities

Within Europe, Germany has some of the highest demand for rental housing in its “Top 7” cities which include Hamburg, Dusseldorf, Cologne, Frankfurt, Stuttgart, Berlin and Munich. Driving this demand is strong population growth, high volumes of renters and a preference for smaller household sizes:


Strong population growth

Population growth in Top 7 cities vs. rest of Germany


High % of rents

Distribution between owners and renters


Reduction in household sizes

Percent of households comprising 1 or 2 people

GDP and employment growth indicate significant opportunity

As an example, we’ve identified that Cologne’s GDP and employment growth has steadily outperformed the German average. Between 2005 and 2020, Cologne’s GDP grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.52% compared to the German average, which stood at 1.04%.

During the same period, Cologne’s employment grew at a rate of 1.47%, versus the German average of 0.88%. These are indicators that support a capital and rent growth opportunity, not only in the Cologne market, but also in its surrounding areas. In many areas of Germany, high rental price growth continues to outstrip supply and this growth isn’t limited to its cities.

Cologne and Rhein-Erft-Kris
are prime rental districts

Taking Cologne again – where rentals make up 71.9% of housing – and one of its neighbouring commuter districts, Rhein-Erft-Kris, as an example: the growing demand for rental properties within these two districts has resulted in rental price growth of 12% over the past five years and a significant drop in the average time it takes for an apartment to rent, falling from around 10 weeks to around five weeks in Rhein-Erft-Kreis, and from around six weeks to around three weeks in Cologne. With population and disposable incomes forecast to grow annually by 1.2% and 1.0% respectively over the next 10 years, demand and rental prices will continue to drive upwards in both regions.

Case study

Hamburg SFR portfolio

Hamburg is one of the most promising rental cities in Germany, however investors are unable to source dispersed SFR assets at attractive prices and aggregate them into scalable portfolios. This is only made possible using our end-to-end platform, with tech-enabled efficiencies across the entire residential value chain.

Our automated lead generation and filtering reduces the ‘time to inspect’ from 7 days to 1 day

A – Analysis at scale: >20,000 leads generated through D2C, broker partnerships and scraping listing websites.

B – Accurate de-duplication: Consolidation and analysis of 15+ data sources to gain complete market coverage.

C – Data enrichment: Location and macro data overlay is used to advance asset analysis.

D – Yield estimates: Yields estimated pre-inspection to identify high value investments.


Sourcing summary

In 12-months, we identified over 20,000 unique leads, providing scale of leads to deliver on bespoke investment criteria according to investor demand.

For IMMO’s first investor, this has resulted in:


Map of our Hamburg leads

Results

Analysed

27,000+ | €20bn

Properties using IMMO’s proprietary technology

Inspected

1,000+ | > €422m

Conducted in-person by our local team of experts

Annual acquisition run rate

€210mn

For residential assets across Germany

Assets

>200

Assets under management

Portfolio occupancy rate

99%

Across acquiried assets in Germany

Yield

3.7%

Average gross entry yield across acquired properties

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Case studies

Hellbrookstieg 8
(Barmbek-Nord)

50 sqm

1 Bedroom

1953

€240,000

Before renovation

After renovation

Achieved metrics

UW Rent

€1,100

Achieved rent

€1,280

vs. UW +16.3%

Achieved gross yield

6%

Refurb costs

€16,353


Reventlowstrasse 30 (Othmarschen)

93 sqm

2 Bedroom

1932

€405,000

Before renovation

After renovation

Achieved metrics

UW Rent

€2,300

Achieved rent

€2,400

vs. UW +4.3%

Achieved gross yield

7%

Refurb costs

€8,013